Nashville Predators at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Michael McCarronGoals1
- Zachary L'HeureuxAssists1
- Michael McCarronPoints1
Oilers- Darnell NurseGoals2
- Leon DraisaitlAssists2
- Darnell NursePoints3
Scoring summary
- OT2:33Darnell Nurse Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (13), Leon Draisaitl (10)2–3
- P317:12Cole Smith Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Zachary L'Heureux (3), Jeremy Lauzon (1)2–2
- P25:30Darnell Nurse Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Kulak (3), Mattias Janmark (6)1–2
- P22:44Connor McDavid Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (9), Darnell Nurse (7)1–1
- P18:22Michael McCarron Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:22Michael McCarron Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (11)NSH 1 – 0 EDM · NSH 38% → 53% +15NSH 38% → 53%+15 pts
- P22:44Connor McDavid Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (9), Darnell Nurse (7)NSH 1 – 1 EDM · EDM 42% → 60% +18EDM 42% → 60%+18 pts
- P25:30Darnell Nurse Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Kulak (3), Mattias Janmark (6)NSH 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 60% → 77% +17EDM 60% → 77%+17 pts
- P317:12Cole Smith Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Zachary L'Heureux (3), Jeremy Lauzon (1)NSH 2 – 2 EDM · NSH 4% → 47% +43NSH 4% → 47%+43 pts
- OT2:33Darnell Nurse Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (13), Leon Draisaitl (10)NSH 2 – 3 EDM · EDM 53% → 97% +44EDM 53% → 97%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 63%
- ML NSH +160 / EDM -190
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- EDM: Elo 62.1%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- EDM -170
- NSH +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.9 – 3.6 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +4 | NSH: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +86 Elo | EDM 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 62.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.4 | Goals scored | 2.822nd of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.9 | Margin | −0.419th of 32 |
| 12th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 56.5%2nd of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 88.3%29th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–5 | Road vs home | 3–629th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–9 | 5–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–10 | 5–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 1–4 EDM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.