Vegas Golden Knights at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Ivan BarbashevGoals1
- Ivan BarbashevAssists2
- Ivan BarbashevPoints3
Canadiens- Jayden StrubleGoals1
- Brendan GallagherAssists2
- Brendan GallagherPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:12Jack Eichel Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (13), Shea Theodore (15)6–2
- P313:03Jayden Struble Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (4), Josh Anderson (6)5–2
- P32:03Emil Heineman Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Armia (7), Brendan Gallagher (3)5–1
- P217:02Keegan Kolesar Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Whitecloud (1), Noah Hanifin (8)5–0
- P210:35Tanner Pearson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (7), Cole Schwindt (6)4–0
- P29:09Ivan Barbashev Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (25)3–0
- P28:18Callahan Burke Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (12), Jack Eichel (24)2–0
- P24:39Tomas Hertl Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (2), Shea Theodore (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:39Tomas Hertl Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (2), Shea Theodore (14)VGK 1 – 0 MTL · VGK 59% → 76% +17VGK 59% → 76%+17 pts
- P28:18Callahan Burke Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (12), Jack Eichel (24)VGK 2 – 0 MTL · VGK 76% → 89% +13VGK 76% → 89%+13 pts
- P29:09Ivan Barbashev Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (25)VGK 3 – 0 MTL · VGK 89% → 96% +7VGK 89% → 96%+7 pts
- P210:35Tanner Pearson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (7), Cole Schwindt (6)VGK 4 – 0 MTL · VGK 96% → 99% +3VGK 96% → 99%+3 pts
- P217:02Keegan Kolesar Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Whitecloud (1), Noah Hanifin (8)VGK 5 – 0 MTL · VGK >99% → >99% +0VGK >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 61%
- ML VGK -175 / MTL +150
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- VGK: Elo 55.5%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- VGK -159
- MTL +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.6 – 2.9 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +4 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +38 Elo | VGK 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 62.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.8 | Goals scored | 2.819th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.731st of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.927th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.8% | Shot share | 44.8%30th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 88.6%29th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 15th of 324–6 | Road vs home | 5–515th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–9 | 9–10 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders | 13–7 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 2–0 MTL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.