Edmonton Oilers at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers
Canadiens- Jake EvansGoals1
- Jake EvansAssists1
- Jake EvansPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:52Jake Evans Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (12)0–3
- P35:52Kaiden Guhle Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (4), Jake Evans (6)0–2
- P219:29Brendan Gallagher Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Mike Matheson (12)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P219:29Brendan Gallagher Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Mike Matheson (12)EDM 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 38% → 63% +24MTL 38% → 63%+24 pts
- P35:52Kaiden Guhle Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (4), Jake Evans (6)EDM 0 – 2 MTL · MTL 69% → 90% +20MTL 69% → 90%+20 pts
- P316:52Jake Evans Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (12)EDM 0 – 3 MTL · MTL >99% → >99% +0MTL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 69%
- ML EDM -260 / MTL +215
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.2 pts
- EDM: Elo 59.3%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- EDM -227
- MTL +227 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.8 – 2.7 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +1 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +65 Elo | EDM 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 63.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.820th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.931st of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.4 | Margin | −1.130th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.8% | Shot share | 44.8%29th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.1% | Save percentage | 87.9%31st of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 9th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 4–520th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–13 | 8–10 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–12 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders | 6–12 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 2–0 MTL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.