Vegas Golden Knights at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Brett HowdenGoals1
- Ivan BarbashevAssists2
- Ivan BarbashevPoints2
Senators- Adam GaudetteGoals1
- Claude GirouxAssists1
- Adam GaudettePoints1
Scoring summary
- P312:38Drake Batherson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (10), Tim Stützle (15)3–2
- P39:17Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (6), Alexander Holtz (7)3–1
- P37:17Adam Gaudette Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (3), Claude Giroux (8)2–1
- P210:51Brett Howden Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (11), Noah Hanifin (6)2–0
- P16:45Jack Eichel Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (10), Shea Theodore (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:45Jack Eichel Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (10), Shea Theodore (13)VGK 1 – 0 OTT · VGK 41% → 56% +15VGK 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P210:51Brett Howden Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (11), Noah Hanifin (6)VGK 2 – 0 OTT · VGK 64% → 81% +17VGK 64% → 81%+17 pts
- P37:17Adam Gaudette Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (3), Claude Giroux (8)VGK 2 – 1 OTT · OTT 7% → 25% +18OTT 7% → 25%+18 pts
- P39:17Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (6), Alexander Holtz (7)VGK 3 – 1 OTT · VGK 78% → 95% +17VGK 78% → 95%+17 pts
- P312:38Drake Batherson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (10), Tim Stützle (15)VGK 3 – 2 OTT · OTT 2% → 17% +15OTT 2% → 17%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 60%
- ML VGK +140 / OTT -165
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- OTT: Elo 55.9%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- OTT -149
- VGK +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.5 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VGK on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +6 | VGK: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +41 Elo | OTT 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 58.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.8 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 8th of 3252.3% | Shot share | 54.4%4th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 88.8%25th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–6 | Road vs home | 5–414th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–9 | 9–9 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 13–6 | 7–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 2–1 OTT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.