Chicago Blackhawks at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Pat MaroonGoals1
- Pat MaroonAssists1
- Pat MaroonPoints2
Flyers- Noah CatesGoals1
- Rasmus RistolainenAssists1
- Sean CouturierPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:06Matvei Michkov Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (14), Travis Sanheim (8)2–3
- P310:05Noah Cates Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (7), Tyson Foerster (2)2–2
- P37:27Sean Couturier Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Ristolainen (3), Travis Konecny (13)2–1
- P210:01Patrick Maroon Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Craig Smith (3), Lukas Reichel (6)2–0
- P111:29Lukas Reichel Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Maroon (5), Connor Murphy (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:29Lukas Reichel Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Maroon (5), Connor Murphy (8)CHI 1 – 0 PHI · CHI 41% → 57% +16CHI 41% → 57%+16 pts
- P210:01Patrick Maroon Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Craig Smith (3), Lukas Reichel (6)CHI 2 – 0 PHI · CHI 63% → 80% +17CHI 63% → 80%+17 pts
- P37:27Sean Couturier Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Ristolainen (3), Travis Konecny (13)CHI 2 – 1 PHI · PHI 7% → 25% +18PHI 7% → 25%+18 pts
- P310:05Noah Cates Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (7), Tyson Foerster (2)CHI 2 – 2 PHI · PHI 21% → 54% +33PHI 21% → 54%+33 pts
- OT1:06Matvei Michkov Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (14), Travis Sanheim (8)CHI 2 – 3 PHI · PHI 53% → 93% +41PHI 53% → 93%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 60%
- ML CHI +140 / PHI -165
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 59.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -149
- CHI +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.5 – 3.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1419 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −3 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · PHI: Aleksei Kolosov: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +66 Elo | PHI 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.4 | Goals scored | 2.919th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.725th of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.2% | Shot share | 47.8%25th of 32 |
| 7th of 3291.6% | Save percentage | 88.7%28th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–8 | Road vs home | 4–625th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–11 | 9–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 8–8 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 5–15 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–1 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.