Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Ivan IvanGoals2
- Josh MansonAssists1
- Ivan IvanPoints2
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints3
Scoring summary
- P34:44Michael Eyssimont Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Zemgus Girgensons (1)2–8
- P33:09Jake Guentzel Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Perbix (4)2–7
- P31:08Ivan Ivan Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–6
- P29:38Brayden Point Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (17), Nikita Kucherov (20)1–6
- P119:46Anthony Cirelli Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Cernak (6), Brandon Hagel (16)1–5
- P113:15Luke Glendening Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (15)1–4
- P110:03Nikita Kucherov Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (14)1–3
- P18:56Ivan Ivan Goal (4) Poke, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (3), Josh Manson (5)1–2
- P17:46Jake Guentzel Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (13), Nikita Kucherov (19)0–2
- P15:41Nick Perbix Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:41Nick Perbix Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCOL 0 – 1 TB · TB 52% → 67% +15TB 52% → 67%+15 pts
- P17:46Jake Guentzel Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (13), Nikita Kucherov (19)COL 0 – 2 TB · TB 67% → 80% +13TB 67% → 80%+13 pts
- P18:56Ivan Ivan Goal (4) Poke, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (3), Josh Manson (5)COL 1 – 2 TB · COL 20% → 33% +13COL 20% → 33%+13 pts
- P110:03Nikita Kucherov Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (14)COL 1 – 3 TB · TB 67% → 80% +13TB 67% → 80%+13 pts
- P113:15Luke Glendening Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (15)COL 1 – 4 TB · TB 81% → 90% +9TB 81% → 90%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TB 52%
- ML COL +100 / TB -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- TB: Elo 52.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -109
- COL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.2 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +14 | +7 | COL: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +19 Elo | TB 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.65th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.510th of 32 |
| 6th of 3253.7% | Shot share | 49.3%19th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.7% | Save percentage | 90.1%17th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–3 | Road vs home | 6–38th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–14 | 7–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–11 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 13–8 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 1–2 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.