Dallas Stars at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Colin BlackwellGoals1
- Mavrik BourqueAssists1
- Matt DuchenePoints1
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals1
- Tyler BertuzziAssists2
- Tyler BertuzziPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:43Matt Duchene Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Wyatt Johnston (9), Jason Robertson (8)2–6
- P213:18Louis Crevier Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (2)1–6
- P28:42Taylor Hall Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Craig Smith (4), Patrick Maroon (6)1–5
- P23:41Colin Blackwell Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Miro Heiskanen (6), Mavrik Bourque (3)1–4
- P23:06Teuvo Teravainen Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (4), TJ Brodie (4)0–4
- P20:41Connor Bedard Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (3)0–3
- P15:43Taylor Hall Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (4)0–2
- P10:17Taylor Hall Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (2), Alec Martinez (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:17Taylor Hall Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (2), Alec Martinez (2)DAL 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 32% → 46% +14CHI 32% → 46%+14 pts
- P15:43Taylor Hall Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (4)DAL 0 – 2 CHI · CHI 48% → 63% +15CHI 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P20:41Connor Bedard Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (3)DAL 0 – 3 CHI · CHI 70% → 84% +14CHI 70% → 84%+14 pts
- P23:06Teuvo Teravainen Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (4), TJ Brodie (4)DAL 0 – 4 CHI · CHI 85% → 93% +8CHI 85% → 93%+8 pts
- P23:41Colin Blackwell Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Miro Heiskanen (6), Mavrik Bourque (3)DAL 1 – 4 CHI · DAL 6% → 15% +8DAL 6% → 15%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 68%
- ML DAL -240 / CHI +200
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- DAL: Elo 61.6%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- DAL -212
- CHI +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.8 – 2.7 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1417 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −12 | +10 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +82 Elo | DAL 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 64.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.430th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.0 | Margin | −0.626th of 32 |
| 7th of 3253.2% | Shot share | 45.7%28th of 32 |
| 8th of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 91.6%5th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 10th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 3–529th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–10 | 10–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–7 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 8–12 | 5–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 5–1 CHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.