Washington Capitals at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Rasmus SandinGoals1
- John CarlsonAssists3
- John CarlsonPoints3
Devils- Stefan NoesenGoals2
- Timo MeierAssists2
- Stefan NoesenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:45Stefan Noesen Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Timo Meier (11), Jack Hughes (21)6–5
- P314:04Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (13), Taylor Raddysh (7)6–4
- P313:54Taylor Raddysh Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Martin Fehervary (5), John Carlson (16)5–4
- P34:15Jesper Bratt Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (20), Ondrej Palat (4)4–4
- P32:03Stefan Noesen Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Jack Hughes (19), Jesper Bratt (20)4–3
- P219:47Rasmus Sandin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Miroshnichenko (2)4–2
- P210:56Jakob Chychrun Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (6), Rasmus Sandin (9)3–2
- P29:49Connor McMichael Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (13), John Carlson (15)2–2
- P22:38Justin Dowling Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Brett Pesce (1)1–2
- P110:54Nico Hischier Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Luke Hughes (6), Timo Meier (10)1–1
- P16:19Andrew Mangiapane Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (6), John Carlson (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:49Connor McMichael Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (13), John Carlson (15)WSH 2 – 2 NJ · WSH 25% → 44% +19WSH 25% → 44%+19 pts
- P210:56Jakob Chychrun Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (6), Rasmus Sandin (9)WSH 3 – 2 NJ · WSH 44% → 64% +21WSH 44% → 64%+21 pts
- P32:03Stefan Noesen Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Jack Hughes (19), Jesper Bratt (20)WSH 4 – 3 NJ · NJ 11% → 29% +18NJ 11% → 29%+18 pts
- P34:15Jesper Bratt Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (20), Ondrej Palat (4)WSH 4 – 4 NJ · NJ 27% → 55% +27NJ 27% → 55%+27 pts
- P313:54Taylor Raddysh Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Martin Fehervary (5), John Carlson (16)WSH 5 – 4 NJ · WSH 47% → 86% +39WSH 47% → 86%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 59%
- ML WSH +135 / NJ -155
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- NJ: Elo 53.0%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- NJ -143
- WSH +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 3.5 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | NJ and WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −7 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +21 Elo | NJ 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 60.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.1 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.3 | Margin | +0.86th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 53.2%6th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 90.6%9th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Road vs home | 5–620th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–7 | 13–13 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 10–12 |
| Underdog | 12–3 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 14–9 | 11–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–3 NJ in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.