New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Tomas TatarGoals1
- Tomas TatarAssists1
- Tomas TatarPoints2
Capitals- Matt RoyGoals1
- Rasmus SandinAssists1
- Matt RoyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P34:54Connor McMichael Goal (13) , assists: none3–2
- P215:42Dougie Hamilton Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (18), Nico Hischier (11)3–1
- P27:08Brenden Dillon Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Tatar (5)2–1
- P116:31Tomas Tatar Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (6), Luke Hughes (3)1–1
- P113:52Matt Roy Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (8), Hendrix Lapierre (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:52Matt Roy Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (8), Hendrix Lapierre (3)NJ 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 44% → 60% +16WSH 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P116:31Tomas Tatar Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (6), Luke Hughes (3)NJ 1 – 1 WSH · NJ 39% → 56% +17NJ 39% → 56%+17 pts
- P27:08Brenden Dillon Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Tatar (5)NJ 2 – 1 WSH · NJ 55% → 73% +18NJ 55% → 73%+18 pts
- P215:42Dougie Hamilton Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (18), Nico Hischier (11)NJ 3 – 1 WSH · NJ 75% → 90% +14NJ 75% → 90%+14 pts
- P34:54Connor McMichael Goal (13) , assists: noneNJ 3 – 2 WSH · WSH 6% → 21% +15WSH 6% → 21%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 57%
- ML NJ -145 / WSH +125
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.8 pts
- NJ: Elo 43.4%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NJ -133
- WSH +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.5 – 3.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −3 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +46 Elo | WSH 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 51.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 4.22nd of 32 |
| 7th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.711th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.8 | Margin | +1.43rd of 32 |
| 8th of 3252.0% | Shot share | 50.5%13th of 32 |
| 11th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 90.8%13th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 7th of 327–4 | Road vs home | 7–410th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–10 | 13–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–9 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–13 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 2–4 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.