Washington Capitals at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Lars EllerGoals2
- Jakob ChychrunAssists2
- Jakob ChychrunPoints3
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheAssists1
- Carter VerhaeghePoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:37Ivan Miroshnichenko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Roy (4)4–1
- P318:32Lars Eller Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (12), Jakob Chychrun (5)3–1
- P31:18Jakob Chychrun Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (23), Tom Wilson (9)2–1
- P117:49Lars Eller Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (4), Hendrix Lapierre (4)1–1
- P17:00Niko Mikkola Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (10), Carter Verhaeghe (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:00Niko Mikkola Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (10), Carter Verhaeghe (10)WSH 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 60% → 74% +14FLA 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P117:49Lars Eller Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (4), Hendrix Lapierre (4)WSH 1 – 1 FLA · WSH 25% → 41% +16WSH 25% → 41%+16 pts
- P31:18Jakob Chychrun Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (23), Tom Wilson (9)WSH 2 – 1 FLA · WSH 44% → 69% +25WSH 44% → 69%+25 pts
- P318:32Lars Eller Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (12), Jakob Chychrun (5)WSH 3 – 1 FLA · WSH 99% → >99% +1WSH 99% → >99%+1 pts
- P319:37Ivan Miroshnichenko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Roy (4)WSH 4 – 1 FLA · WSH 100% → 100% +0WSH 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 61%
- ML WSH +145 / FLA -170
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- FLA: Elo 57.1%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- FLA -154
- WSH +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.4 – 3.1 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −14 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · FLA: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +49 Elo | FLA 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 62.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.0 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 32 |
| 11th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+1.3 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 51.9%10th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 88.8%25th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326–2 | Road vs home | 5–515th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–6 | 10–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 10–3 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 12–8 | 14–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–3 FLA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.