New Jersey Devils at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Timo MeierGoals1
- Timo MeierAssists1
- Dougie HamiltonPoints2
Red Wings- Vladimir TarasenkoGoals1
- J.T. CompherAssists2
- Vladimir TarasenkoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P33:27Justin Holl Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (4), Alex DeBrincat (11)5–4
- P33:05Jack Hughes Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (15), Jesper Bratt (19)5–3
- P216:49Stefan Noesen Goal (11) Deflected, assists: none4–3
- P211:10Nico Hischier Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (9), Johnathan Kovacevic (8)3–3
- P21:26Tyler Motte Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Ben Chiarot (3), J.T. Compher (6)2–3
- P118:00Timo Meier Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (5), Tomas Tatar (6)2–2
- P116:05Dougie Hamilton Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (12), Jack Hughes (18)1–2
- P19:22Lucas Raymond Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (7), Marco Kasper (3)0–2
- P13:41Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jeff Petry (3), J.T. Compher (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:05Dougie Hamilton Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (12), Jack Hughes (18)NJ 1 – 2 DET · NJ 29% → 45% +16NJ 29% → 45%+16 pts
- P118:00Timo Meier Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (5), Tomas Tatar (6)NJ 2 – 2 DET · NJ 44% → 61% +17NJ 44% → 61%+17 pts
- P21:26Tyler Motte Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Ben Chiarot (3), J.T. Compher (6)NJ 2 – 3 DET · DET 39% → 57% +18DET 39% → 57%+18 pts
- P211:10Nico Hischier Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (9), Johnathan Kovacevic (8)NJ 3 – 3 DET · NJ 39% → 60% +21NJ 39% → 60%+21 pts
- P216:49Stefan Noesen Goal (11) Deflected, assists: noneNJ 4 – 3 DET · NJ 59% → 79% +20NJ 59% → 79%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 64%
- ML NJ -195 / DET +165
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.0 pts
- NJ: Elo 47.6%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- NJ -175
- DET +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.1 – 2.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +8 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +16 Elo | DET 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.530th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.526th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.3% | Shot share | 43.3%32nd of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 91.2%8th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 5th of 328–4 | Road vs home | 5–620th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–12 | 11–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–11 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders | 10–15 | 9–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 2–2 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.