New York Islanders at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Simon HolmstromGoals1
- Scott MayfieldAssists1
- Simon HolmstromPoints1
Red Wings- Jonatan BerggrenGoals1
- Simon EdvinssonAssists1
- Jonatan BerggrenPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:08Lucas Raymond Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (5), Simon Edvinsson (6)1–2
- P315:14Jonatan Berggren Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (4)1–1
- P15:51Simon Holmstrom Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Scott Mayfield (4)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:51Simon Holmstrom Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Scott Mayfield (4)NYI 1 – 0 DET · NYI 57% → 71% +14NYI 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P315:14Jonatan Berggren Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (4)NYI 1 – 1 DET · DET 9% → 48% +39DET 9% → 48%+39 pts
- P319:08Lucas Raymond Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (5), Simon Edvinsson (6)NYI 1 – 2 DET · DET 49% → >99% +51DET 49% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 57%
- ML NYI -145 / DET +125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.5 pts
- NYI: Elo 44.6%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NYI -133
- DET +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.0 – 2.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −8 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +38 Elo | DET 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.626th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.323rd of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.826th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 42.3%32nd of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 90.7%15th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–7 | Road vs home | 3–528th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–11 | 7–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–8 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 11–8 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 1–3 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.