New York Islanders at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Pierre EngvallGoals1
- Noah DobsonAssists1
- Pierre EngvallPoints1
Kraken- Jamie OleksiakGoals1
- Tye KartyeAssists1
- Jamie OleksiakPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:47Jamie Oleksiak Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (5), Brandon Tanev (3)2–3
- P35:26Jared McCann Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (8), Ryker Evans (8)2–2
- P34:49Brock Nelson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (7), Kyle Palmieri (9)2–1
- P113:38Pierre Engvall Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Pulock (7), Dennis Cholowski (1)1–1
- P18:10Yanni Gourde Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Brandon Tanev (2), Tye Kartye (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:10Yanni Gourde Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Brandon Tanev (2), Tye Kartye (2)NYI 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 49% → 64% +15SEA 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P113:38Pierre Engvall Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Pulock (7), Dennis Cholowski (1)NYI 1 – 1 SEA · NYI 35% → 51% +16NYI 35% → 51%+16 pts
- P34:49Brock Nelson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (7), Kyle Palmieri (9)NYI 2 – 1 SEA · NYI 51% → 77% +26NYI 51% → 77%+26 pts
- P35:26Jared McCann Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (8), Ryker Evans (8)NYI 2 – 2 SEA · SEA 23% → 49% +27SEA 23% → 49%+27 pts
- P316:47Jamie Oleksiak Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (5), Brandon Tanev (3)NYI 2 – 3 SEA · SEA 50% → 94% +44SEA 50% → 94%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 51%
- ML NYI -115 / SEA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- NYI: Elo 45.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYI -104
- SEA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.8 – 2.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +6 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +33 Elo | SEA 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.115th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.9% | Shot share | 47.9%24th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 90.5%13th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 10th of 325–5 | Road vs home | 5–414th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–10 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–7 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 11–6 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 0–2 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.