New York Islanders at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Pierre EngvallGoals1
- Scott MayfieldAssists1
- Pierre EngvallPoints1
Flames- Nazem KadriAssists1
- Nazem KadriPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Justin Kirkland Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- SO0:00Andrei Kuzmenko Goal Backhand0–2
- P38:17Rasmus Andersson Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (5), Martin Pospisil (5)1–1
- P21:32Pierre Engvall Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Mayfield (3), Dennis Cholowski (2)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:32Pierre Engvall Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Mayfield (3), Dennis Cholowski (2)NYI 1 – 0 CGY · NYI 51% → 68% +17NYI 51% → 68%+17 pts
- P38:17Rasmus Andersson Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (5), Martin Pospisil (5)NYI 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 20% → 50% +29CGY 20% → 50%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 51%
- ML NYI -115 / CGY -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- NYI: Elo 43.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYI -104
- CGY +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.8 – 2.7 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +13 | NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +47 Elo | CGY 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 52.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.722nd of 32 |
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.117th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 48.5%22nd of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 91.4%7th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 12th of 325–6 | Road vs home | 6–39th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–11 | 10–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–8 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 11–7 | 5–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 1–1 CGY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.