Boston Bruins at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakAssists1
- Tyler JohnsonPoints1
Red Wings- Vladimir TarasenkoAssists1
- Vladimir TarasenkoPoints1
Scoring summary
- P311:30Brad Marchand Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Peeke (3), David Pastrnak (11)2–1
- P119:02Lucas Raymond Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (6), Dylan Larkin (6)1–1
- P18:33Justin Brazeau Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Tyler Johnson (1), Mason Lohrei (7)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:33Justin Brazeau Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Tyler Johnson (1), Mason Lohrei (7)BOS 1 – 0 DET · BOS 56% → 70% +15BOS 56% → 70%+15 pts
- P119:02Lucas Raymond Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (6), Dylan Larkin (6)BOS 1 – 1 DET · DET 28% → 45% +16DET 28% → 45%+16 pts
- P311:30Brad Marchand Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Peeke (3), David Pastrnak (11)BOS 2 – 1 DET · BOS 52% → 85% +32BOS 52% → 85%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 56%
- ML BOS -140 / DET +120
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 45.7%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -128
- DET +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.9 – 2.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +6 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +30 Elo | DET 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.3 | Goals scored | 2.526th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−1.0 | Margin | −0.725th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.4% | Shot share | 43.0%32nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 90.9%12th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–6 | Road vs home | 4–522nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–16 | 8–11 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–11 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 2–5 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 9–12 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–2 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.