Utah Hockey Club at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC
Bruins- David PastrnakAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints1
Scoring summary
- P212:41Elias Lindholm Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (9), David Pastrnak (10)0–1
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:41Elias Lindholm Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (9), David Pastrnak (10)UTAH 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 54% → 74% +20BOS 54% → 74%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 55%
- ML UTAH +115 / BOS -135
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -124
- UTAH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 3.1 – 3.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −12 | UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +38 Elo | BOS 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.430th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.526th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −1.130th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.3% | Shot share | 47.9%24th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 88.9%23rd of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–6 | Road vs home | 5–619th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–9 | 5–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 3–10 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 8–10 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–0 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.