Detroit Red Wings at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Moritz SeiderGoals1
- Moritz SeiderAssists1
- Moritz SeiderPoints2
Islanders- Anders LeeGoals1
- Isaiah GeorgeAssists1
- Kyle PalmieriPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:57Simon Edvinsson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P313:53Lucas Raymond Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Simon Edvinsson (7), Moritz Seider (10)3–2
- P311:20Dylan Larkin Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Holl (2), Albert Johansson (1)2–2
- P27:42Kyle Palmieri Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (6), Isaiah George (1)1–2
- P113:25Moritz Seider Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (3), Christian Fischer (2)1–1
- P14:35Anders Lee Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (5), Noah Dobson (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:35Anders Lee Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (5), Noah Dobson (8)DET 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 58% → 72% +14NYI 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P113:25Moritz Seider Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (3), Christian Fischer (2)DET 1 – 1 NYI · DET 27% → 42% +15DET 27% → 42%+15 pts
- P27:42Kyle Palmieri Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (6), Isaiah George (1)DET 1 – 2 NYI · NYI 56% → 75% +18NYI 56% → 75%+18 pts
- P311:20Dylan Larkin Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Holl (2), Albert Johansson (1)DET 2 – 2 NYI · DET 15% → 47% +32DET 15% → 47%+32 pts
- P313:53Lucas Raymond Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Simon Edvinsson (7), Moritz Seider (10)DET 3 – 2 NYI · DET 47% → 86% +39DET 47% → 86%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 59%
- ML DET +135 / NYI -155
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- NYI: Elo 55.4%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- NYI -143
- DET +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.5 – 3.0 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +4 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +38 Elo | NYI 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 59.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.624th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.320th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3242.9% | Shot share | 50.4%14th of 32 |
| 13th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 91.2%9th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 17th of 324–6 | Road vs home | 3–529th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–11 | 9–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–12 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–1 NYI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.