St. Louis Blues at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Jake NeighboursGoals1
- Pavel BuchnevichAssists1
- Jake NeighboursPoints1
Islanders- Kyle PalmieriGoals2
- Maxim TsyplakovAssists1
- Kyle PalmieriPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:23Kyle Palmieri Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (5)1–3
- P30:45Jake Neighbours Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (8), Robert Thomas (8)1–2
- P215:55Brock Nelson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Maxim Tsyplakov (9), Simon Holmstrom (7)0–2
- P118:51Kyle Palmieri Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (4)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:51Kyle Palmieri Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (4)STL 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 58% → 74% +16NYI 58% → 74%+16 pts
- P215:55Brock Nelson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Maxim Tsyplakov (9), Simon Holmstrom (7)STL 0 – 2 NYI · NYI 77% → 91% +14NYI 77% → 91%+14 pts
- P30:45Jake Neighbours Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (8), Robert Thomas (8)STL 1 – 2 NYI · STL 8% → 22% +14STL 8% → 22%+14 pts
- P319:23Kyle Palmieri Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (5)STL 1 – 3 NYI · NYI >99% → >99% +0NYI >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 60%
- ML STL +140 / NYI -165
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- NYI: Elo 54.8%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NYI -149
- STL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.5 – 3.0 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −1 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +34 Elo | NYI 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 62.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.525th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.9 | Margin | −0.420th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.4% | Shot share | 50.2%14th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 91.0%9th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 16th of 324–6 | Road vs home | 2–531st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–9 | 8–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 0–9 |
| Underdog | 12–6 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–11 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–1 NYI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.