San Jose Sharks at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Alexander WennbergGoals2
- Macklin CelebriniAssists2
- Alexander WennbergPoints2
Blues- Nathan WalkerGoals1
- Radek FaksaAssists1
- Nathan WalkerPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Jake Neighbours Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P319:51Alexander Wennberg Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (15), Macklin Celebrini (3)2–2
- P211:47Jordan Kyrou Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Pierre-Olivier Joseph (2), Robert Thomas (7)1–2
- P18:23Alexander Wennberg Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (14), Macklin Celebrini (2)1–1
- P10:11Nathan Walker Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (3)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:11Nathan Walker Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (3)SJ 0 – 1 STL · STL 66% → 78% +12STL 66% → 78%+12 pts
- P18:23Alexander Wennberg Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (14), Macklin Celebrini (2)SJ 1 – 1 STL · SJ 22% → 35% +13SJ 22% → 35%+13 pts
- P211:47Jordan Kyrou Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Pierre-Olivier Joseph (2), Robert Thomas (7)SJ 1 – 2 STL · STL 61% → 79% +18STL 61% → 79%+18 pts
- P319:51Alexander Wennberg Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (15), Macklin Celebrini (3)SJ 2 – 2 STL · SJ <1% → 49% +49SJ <1% → 49%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- STL 66%
- ML SJ +180 / STL -215
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- STL: Elo 67.0%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- STL -191
- SJ +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.3 – 3.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1395 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +21 | −3 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.54 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +123 Elo | STL 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 60.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.526th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.1 | Margin | −1.030th of 32 |
| 29th of 3245.2% | Shot share | 47.0%27th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 88.9%26th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 32nd of 322–10 | Road vs home | 4–625th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–8 | 12–8 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders | 9–12 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 3–1 STL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.