Minnesota Wild at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals2
- Jake MiddletonAssists1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints2
Blues- Jake NeighboursGoals1
- Jordan KyrouAssists1
- Jake NeighboursPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:37Kirill Kaprizov Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P313:44Jonas Brodin Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jared Spurgeon (6), Marcus Johansson (4)3–2
- P310:37Jake Neighbours Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (7), Robert Thomas (6)2–2
- P36:07Kirill Kaprizov Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Jake Middleton (7), Matt Boldy (9)2–1
- P24:48Scott Perunovich Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (12), Zack Bolduc (5)1–1
- P112:24Ryan Hartman Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (10), Brock Faber (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:24Ryan Hartman Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (10), Brock Faber (8)MIN 1 – 0 STL · MIN 60% → 74% +15MIN 60% → 74%+15 pts
- P24:48Scott Perunovich Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (12), Zack Bolduc (5)MIN 1 – 1 STL · STL 25% → 42% +17STL 25% → 42%+17 pts
- P36:07Kirill Kaprizov Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Jake Middleton (7), Matt Boldy (9)MIN 2 – 1 STL · MIN 55% → 81% +26MIN 55% → 81%+26 pts
- P310:37Jake Neighbours Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (7), Robert Thomas (6)MIN 2 – 2 STL · STL 15% → 46% +31STL 15% → 46%+31 pts
- P313:44Jonas Brodin Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jared Spurgeon (6), Marcus Johansson (4)MIN 3 – 2 STL · MIN 53% → 89% +35MIN 53% → 89%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 61%
- ML MIN -170 / STL +145
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 51.6%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -154
- STL +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.1 – 2.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −2 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +11 Elo | MIN 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.424th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.9 | Margin | −0.929th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 47.0%27th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3292.1% | Save percentage | 88.9%24th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Road vs home | 4–520th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–6 | 12–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–6 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–3 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.