Nashville Predators at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Zachary L'HeureuxGoals1
- Roman JosiAssists1
- Zachary L'HeureuxPoints1
Devils- Nico HischierGoals3
- Johnathan KovacevicAssists2
- Nico HischierPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:25Justin Dowling Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (7), Brenden Dillon (5)2–5
- P37:39Zachary L'Heureux Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Roman Josi (13)2–4
- P216:57Nico Hischier Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (9)1–4
- P210:01Nico Hischier Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–3
- P23:52Nico Hischier Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (8), Luke Hughes (4)1–2
- P111:29Erik Haula Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (6), Dawson Mercer (8)1–1
- P15:08Filip Forsberg Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:08Filip Forsberg Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNSH 1 – 0 NJ · NSH 45% → 60% +15NSH 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P111:29Erik Haula Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (6), Dawson Mercer (8)NSH 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 39% → 55% +16NJ 39% → 55%+16 pts
- P23:52Nico Hischier Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (8), Luke Hughes (4)NSH 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 54% → 72% +18NJ 54% → 72%+18 pts
- P210:01Nico Hischier Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNSH 1 – 3 NJ · NJ 73% → 87% +14NJ 73% → 87%+14 pts
- P216:57Nico Hischier Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (9)NSH 1 – 4 NJ · NJ 90% → 97% +7NJ 90% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 55%
- ML NSH +115 / NJ -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- NJ: Elo 58.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NJ -124
- NSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.1 – 3.4 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +10 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +58 Elo | NJ 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 58.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.4 | Goals scored | 3.411th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.66th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.86th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 52.2%8th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 91.0%10th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Road vs home | 4–523rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–11 | 12–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–9 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–14 | 9–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 1–1 NJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.