Winnipeg Jets at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Adam LowryGoals1
- Nino NiederreiterAssists1
- Adam LowryPoints1
Predators- Roman JosiGoals2
- Jonathan MarchessaultAssists1
- Roman JosiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:40Roman Josi Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (9)1–4
- P35:04Jonathan Marchessault Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–3
- P33:20Steven Stamkos Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (8), Brady Skjei (6)1–2
- P29:58Adam Lowry Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (6), Mason Appleton (7)1–1
- P19:55Roman Josi Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (8), Mark Jankowski (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:55Roman Josi Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (8), Mark Jankowski (2)WPG 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 55% → 70% +15NSH 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P29:58Adam Lowry Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (6), Mason Appleton (7)WPG 1 – 1 NSH · WPG 27% → 46% +19WPG 27% → 46%+19 pts
- P33:20Steven Stamkos Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (8), Brady Skjei (6)WPG 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 53% → 78% +25NSH 53% → 78%+25 pts
- P35:04Jonathan Marchessault Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWPG 1 – 3 NSH · NSH 79% → 94% +15NSH 79% → 94%+15 pts
- P318:40Roman Josi Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (9)WPG 1 – 4 NSH · NSH >99% → >99% +0NSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 55%
- ML WPG +115 / NSH -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- NSH: Elo 51.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NSH -124
- WPG +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.1 – 3.4 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WPG on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −24 | +2 | WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.59 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +12 Elo | NSH 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 60.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.2 | Goals scored | 2.332nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.9 | Margin | −0.928th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.7% | Shot share | 49.8%17th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3292.1% | Save percentage | 90.5%16th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Road vs home | 4–626th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–8 | 9–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–5 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–10 | 7–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 2–2 NSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.