Winnipeg Jets at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Nino NiederreiterGoals1
- Cole PerfettiAssists1
- Nino NiederreiterPoints1
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinAssists1
- Evgeni MalkinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:49Kyle Connor Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (10), Mark Scheifele (13)4–1
- P35:49Michael Bunting Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (3), Evgeni Malkin (15)3–1
- P219:01Gabriel Vilardi Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (13), Josh Morrissey (18)3–0
- P24:53Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (14)2–0
- P11:22Nino Niederreiter Goal (8) Backhand, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:22Nino Niederreiter Goal (8) Backhand, assists: noneWPG 1 – 0 PIT · WPG 63% → 76% +13WPG 63% → 76%+13 pts
- P24:53Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (14)WPG 2 – 0 PIT · WPG 77% → 89% +12WPG 77% → 89%+12 pts
- P219:01Gabriel Vilardi Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (13), Josh Morrissey (18)WPG 3 – 0 PIT · WPG 92% → 98% +6WPG 92% → 98%+6 pts
- P35:49Michael Bunting Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (3), Evgeni Malkin (15)WPG 3 – 1 PIT · PIT <1% → 5% +4PIT <1% → 5%+4 pts
- P318:49Kyle Connor Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (10), Mark Scheifele (13)WPG 4 – 1 PIT · WPG >99% → >99% +0WPG >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 63%
- ML WPG -190 / PIT +160
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- WPG: Elo 59.3%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- WPG -170
- PIT +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.6 – 2.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −2 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +65 Elo | WPG 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 58.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.2 | Goals scored | 2.722nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 4.032nd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.8 | Margin | −1.232nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 48.4%22nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3292.0% | Save percentage | 88.8%27th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–2 | Road vs home | 4–626th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–8 | 8–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–5 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders | 10–9 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 2–1 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.