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Nashville Predators at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, FanDuel SN South

Away

Predators

6-10-3

5–3

at

Home

Canucks

9-5-3

NSH 54%VAN 46%

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Rogers Arena · ESPN+, FanDuel SN South

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.

VAN favored NSH favored8 scoring plays
P1P2P3VAN50%NSH

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Predators

Scoring summary

  • P319:39Gustav Nyquist Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–3
  • P314:00Kiefer Sherwood Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (7), Tyler Myers (3)4–3
  • P219:38Steven Stamkos Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (7), Filip Forsberg (7)4–2
  • P214:21Roman Josi Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (5), Filip Forsberg (6)3–2
  • P212:17Steven Stamkos Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (12), Ryan O'Reilly (8)2–2
  • P29:51Elias Pettersson Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (15), Conor Garland (9)1–2
  • P111:34Aatu Raty Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Erik Brannstrom (4), Danton Heinen (6)1–1
  • P15:28Zachary L'Heureux Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Smith (2), Michael McCarron (2)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P111:34Aatu Raty Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Erik Brannstrom (4), Danton Heinen (6)NSH 1 – 1 VAN · VAN 31% → 46% +15
  2. P29:51Elias Pettersson Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (15), Conor Garland (9)NSH 1 – 2 VAN · VAN 47% → 67% +20
  3. P212:17Steven Stamkos Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (12), Ryan O'Reilly (8)NSH 2 – 2 VAN · NSH 32% → 53% +21
  4. P214:21Roman Josi Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (5), Filip Forsberg (6)NSH 3 – 2 VAN · NSH 53% → 74% +21
  5. P219:38Steven Stamkos Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (7), Filip Forsberg (7)NSH 4 – 2 VAN · NSH 75% → 91% +15

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Predators 54%

Toss-upHit
NSH 54%VAN 46%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
NSH 54%
ML NSH -130 / VAN +110
Pre-line forecast
NSH 48%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NSH 45%
Ratings vs. market
−9.1 pts
NSH: Elo 45.2%, market 54.3%
Fair odds
NSH -119
VAN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NSH 2.9 – 2.6 VAN
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNSHVANWhy
Team rating14931524Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Rest—−30VAN on the second night of a back-to-back
Starting goalies+30NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsVAN +33 EloVAN 54.8%
Market-implied ratingsVAN 51.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastVAN 52.2%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNSH 54.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Nashville Predators and Vancouver Canucks compared, with each team's league rank
NSHStatVAN
32nd of 322.3Goals scored3.215th of 32
21st of 323.2Goals allowed3.117th of 32
28th of 32−0.9Margin+0.114th of 32
14th of 3250.6%Shot share50.4%16th of 32
17th of 3290.3%Save percentage89.4%20th of 32
32nd of 322–8Last 106–47th of 32
31st of 321–7Road vs home3–630th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PredatorsCanucks
13501400145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNSHVAN
Puck line8–107–9
Last 106–45–5
Favorite3–86–7
Underdog5–21–2
Overs–unders6–127–9
Overs–unders, last 102–85–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NSH 2–7 VAN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 9.