Calgary Flames at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Connor ZaryGoals1
- MacKenzie WeegarAssists1
- Connor ZaryPoints1
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- Alex DeBrincatAssists1
- Alex DeBrincatPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:35Lucas Raymond Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (10), Moritz Seider (11)1–2
- P317:12Connor Zary Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (10), Yegor Sharangovich (2)1–1
- P16:33Alex DeBrincat Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (3), Lucas Raymond (16)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:33Alex DeBrincat Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (3), Lucas Raymond (16)CGY 0 – 1 DET · DET 49% → 64% +15DET 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P317:12Connor Zary Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (10), Yegor Sharangovich (2)CGY 1 – 1 DET · CGY 5% → 50% +46CGY 5% → 50%+46 pts
- OT3:35Lucas Raymond Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (10), Moritz Seider (11)CGY 1 – 2 DET · DET 50% → >99% +49DET 50% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 51%
- ML CGY -115 / DET -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- CGY: Elo 42.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CGY -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.8 – 2.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +7 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +54 Elo | DET 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.528th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.624th of 32 |
| 15th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 42.9%32nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 91.1%9th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Road vs home | 4–627th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–9 | 10–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 7–15 | 9–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 0–2 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.