Minnesota Wild at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Marco RossiGoals1
- Marco RossiAssists1
- Marco RossiPoints2
Flames- Kevin RooneyGoals1
- Justin KirklandAssists1
- Kevin RooneyPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Rasmus Andersson Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Justin Kirkland Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Frederick Gaudreau Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- P319:26Marco Rossi Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (4)3–3
- P316:01Brock Faber Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (11), Matt Boldy (11)2–3
- P33:53Yegor Sharangovich Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Zary (6), MacKenzie Weegar (9)1–3
- P219:29Martin Pospisil Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Nazem Kadri (6), Rasmus Andersson (8)1–2
- P116:03Marcus Johansson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (10)1–1
- P115:00Kevin Rooney Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Daniil Miromanov (3), Justin Kirkland (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:00Kevin Rooney Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Daniil Miromanov (3), Justin Kirkland (6)MIN 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 49% → 65% +16CGY 49% → 65%+16 pts
- P116:03Marcus Johansson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (10)MIN 1 – 1 CGY · MIN 34% → 51% +17MIN 34% → 51%+17 pts
- P219:29Martin Pospisil Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Nazem Kadri (6), Rasmus Andersson (8)MIN 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 49% → 73% +23CGY 49% → 73%+23 pts
- P33:53Yegor Sharangovich Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Zary (6), MacKenzie Weegar (9)MIN 1 – 3 CGY · CGY 75% → 92% +16CGY 75% → 92%+16 pts
- P319:26Marco Rossi Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (4)MIN 3 – 3 CGY · MIN <1% → 50% +50MIN <1% → 50%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML MIN -115 / CGY -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 52.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- CGY +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.8 – 2.7 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −8 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +20 Elo | MIN 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.722nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 2.78th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+1.1 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 49.6%18th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3292.0% | Save percentage | 91.7%5th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 4th of 329–3 | Road vs home | 8–37th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–6 | 11–9 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–6 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 5–0 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders | 10–9 | 5–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–1 CGY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.