Minnesota Wild at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Frederick GaudreauGoals2
- Ryan HartmanAssists2
- Frederick GaudreauPoints3
Oilers- Corey PerryGoals1
- Corey PerryAssists1
- Corey PerryPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:35Jeff Skinner Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Corey Perry (2), Adam Henrique (3)5–3
- P39:50Frederick Gaudreau Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Middleton (8), Marcus Foligno (3)5–2
- P217:02Frederick Gaudreau Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Hartman (3)4–2
- P29:10Marcus Johansson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (2)3–2
- P26:03Corey Perry Goal (4) Wrap-around, assists: none2–2
- P23:09Marcus Foligno Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Declan Chisholm (5), Frederick Gaudreau (8)2–1
- P19:56Matt Boldy Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (21), Jonas Brodin (6)1–1
- P10:27Leon Draisaitl Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:56Matt Boldy Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (21), Jonas Brodin (6)MIN 1 – 1 EDM · MIN 27% → 42% +15MIN 27% → 42%+15 pts
- P23:09Marcus Foligno Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Declan Chisholm (5), Frederick Gaudreau (8)MIN 2 – 1 EDM · MIN 43% → 61% +18MIN 43% → 61%+18 pts
- P26:03Corey Perry Goal (4) Wrap-around, assists: noneMIN 2 – 2 EDM · EDM 38% → 57% +19EDM 38% → 57%+19 pts
- P29:10Marcus Johansson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (2)MIN 3 – 2 EDM · MIN 44% → 64% +20MIN 44% → 64%+20 pts
- P217:02Frederick Gaudreau Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Hartman (3)MIN 4 – 2 EDM · MIN 67% → 85% +18MIN 67% → 85%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 59%
- ML MIN +135 / EDM -155
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- EDM: Elo 59.3%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- EDM -143
- MIN +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.0 – 3.5 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −15 | −3 | MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.37 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +65 Elo | EDM 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 63.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.821st of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+1.0 | Margin | −0.420th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 56.4%2nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3292.1% | Save percentage | 88.5%30th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 5th of 328–3 | Road vs home | 4–626th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–6 | 6–14 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–6 | 4–13 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 7–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–1 EDM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.