New York Rangers at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Alexis LafreniereGoals1
- K'Andre MillerAssists1
- Alexis LafrenierePoints1
Flames- Yegor SharangovichGoals1
- MacKenzie WeegarAssists3
- MacKenzie WeegarPoints3
Scoring summary
- P310:35Connor Zary Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (5), MacKenzie Weegar (8)2–3
- P216:53Will Cuylle Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: K'Andre Miller (3), Adam Fox (16)2–2
- P216:37Alexis Lafrenière Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (6), Ryan Lindgren (1)1–2
- P28:29Yegor Sharangovich Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (7), Matt Coronato (3)0–2
- P17:26Matt Coronato Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (1), MacKenzie Weegar (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:26Matt Coronato Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (1), MacKenzie Weegar (6)NYR 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 41% → 56% +15CGY 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P28:29Yegor Sharangovich Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (7), Matt Coronato (3)NYR 0 – 2 CGY · CGY 63% → 80% +17CGY 63% → 80%+17 pts
- P216:37Alexis Lafrenière Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (6), Ryan Lindgren (1)NYR 1 – 2 CGY · NYR 16% → 33% +18NYR 16% → 33%+18 pts
- P216:53Will Cuylle Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: K'Andre Miller (3), Adam Fox (16)NYR 2 – 2 CGY · NYR 33% → 56% +23NYR 33% → 56%+23 pts
- P310:35Connor Zary Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (5), MacKenzie Weegar (8)NYR 2 – 3 CGY · CGY 46% → 79% +33CGY 46% → 79%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 60%
- ML NYR -165 / CGY +140
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- NYR: Elo 53.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NYR -149
- CGY +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 2.5 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +15 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.37 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +22 Elo | NYR 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 59.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.723rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 2.78th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.2 | Margin | −0.115th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 48.7%21st of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.6% | Save percentage | 91.7%5th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–1 | Road vs home | 7–37th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–9 | 10–9 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 5–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 2–0 CGY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.