New York Rangers at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Will CuylleGoals1
- Will CuylleAssists1
- Will CuyllePoints2
Canucks- Conor GarlandGoals1
- Filip HronekAssists1
- Conor GarlandPoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:43Chris Kreider Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (8), Mika Zibanejad (10)4–3
- P213:02Conor Garland Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (1), Pius Suter (3)3–3
- P28:45Kaapo Kakko Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (8), Jonny Brodzinski (2)3–2
- P117:39Kiefer Sherwood Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (7), Carson Soucy (2)2–2
- P114:38Will Cuylle Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (8), Adam Fox (15)2–1
- P12:31Mika Zibanejad Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: K'Andre Miller (2), Adam Fox (14)1–1
- P10:34Quinn Hughes Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Filip Hronek (6), Elias Pettersson (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:38Will Cuylle Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (8), Adam Fox (15)NYR 2 – 1 VAN · NYR 56% → 72% +16NYR 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P117:39Kiefer Sherwood Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (7), Carson Soucy (2)NYR 2 – 2 VAN · VAN 28% → 44% +16VAN 28% → 44%+16 pts
- P28:45Kaapo Kakko Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (8), Jonny Brodzinski (2)NYR 3 – 2 VAN · NYR 55% → 74% +19NYR 55% → 74%+19 pts
- P213:02Conor Garland Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (1), Pius Suter (3)NYR 3 – 3 VAN · VAN 25% → 45% +20VAN 25% → 45%+20 pts
- P310:43Chris Kreider Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (8), Mika Zibanejad (10)NYR 4 – 3 VAN · NYR 53% → 84% +31NYR 53% → 84%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 57%
- ML NYR -145 / VAN +125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- NYR: Elo 51.6%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NYR -133
- VAN +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.5 – 3.0 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −11 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · VAN: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +11 Elo | NYR 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 50.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.2 | Margin | −0.117th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 50.7%13th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.9% | Save percentage | 89.0%22nd of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 1st of 326–1 | Road vs home | 3–730th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–8 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–9 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 1–1 VAN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.