New York Rangers at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Zac JonesGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists1
- Alexis LafrenierePoints1
KrakenScoring summary
- P32:58Zac Jones Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (7), Will Cuylle (7)2–0
- P217:30Alexis Lafrenière Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (14)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P217:30Alexis Lafrenière Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (14)NYR 1 – 0 SEA · NYR 58% → 78% +21NYR 58% → 78%+21 pts
- P32:58Zac Jones Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (7), Will Cuylle (7)NYR 2 – 0 SEA · NYR 80% → 94% +13NYR 80% → 94%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 62%
- ML NYR -185 / SEA +155
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- NYR: Elo 63.3%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- NYR -166
- SEA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.6 – 2.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | SEA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −12 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +95 Elo | NYR 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 59.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+1.1 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 48.2%24th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.5% | Save percentage | 90.6%15th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 2nd of 325–1 | Road vs home | 6–412th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–8 | 10–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 7–8 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 2–0 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.