Calgary Flames at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Nazem KadriGoals1
- Mikael BacklundAssists1
- Nazem KadriPoints1
Senators- Drake BathersonGoals1
- Ridly GreigAssists2
- Drake BathersonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:21Nazem Kadri Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Pospisil (6), Mikael Backlund (6)3–4
- P31:14Brady Tkachuk Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (13), Tim Stützle (16)2–4
- P215:27Yegor Sharangovich Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–3
- P213:17Cole Reinhardt Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (5), Jake Sanderson (13)1–3
- P23:18Drake Batherson Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Brady Tkachuk (12), Jake Sanderson (12)1–2
- P117:05Adam Gaudette Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (4), Claude Giroux (10)1–1
- P114:32Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (4), Connor Zary (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:32Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (4), Connor Zary (7)CGY 1 – 0 OTT · CGY 42% → 59% +17CGY 42% → 59%+17 pts
- P117:05Adam Gaudette Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (4), Claude Giroux (10)CGY 1 – 1 OTT · OTT 41% → 58% +17OTT 41% → 58%+17 pts
- P23:18Drake Batherson Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Brady Tkachuk (12), Jake Sanderson (12)CGY 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 57% → 74% +17OTT 57% → 74%+17 pts
- P215:27Yegor Sharangovich Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCGY 2 – 3 OTT · CGY 10% → 24% +14CGY 10% → 24%+14 pts
- P31:14Brady Tkachuk Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (13), Tim Stützle (16)CGY 2 – 4 OTT · OTT 78% → 92% +14OTT 78% → 92%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 59%
- ML CGY +135 / OTT -160
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- OTT: Elo 49.9%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- OTT -145
- CGY +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.5 – 3.0 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +15 | −9 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.39 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +1 Elo | CGY 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 59.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.323rd of 32 |
| 14th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 15th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 54.6%3rd of 32 |
| 6th of 3291.6% | Save percentage | 88.6%27th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323–6 | Road vs home | 5–618th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–9 | 9–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–15 | 8–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 1–1 OTT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.