Vancouver Canucks at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Jake DeBruskGoals2
- Jake DeBruskAssists1
- Jake DeBruskPoints3
Senators- Claude GirouxGoals1
- Drake BathersonAssists2
- Claude GirouxPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:16Tim Stützle Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (9), Drake Batherson (12)4–3
- P316:29Claude Giroux Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Norris (6)4–2
- P38:41Kiefer Sherwood Goal (6) Poke, assists: Jake DeBrusk (8), Elias Pettersson (9)4–1
- P213:01Jake DeBrusk Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (6), Elias Pettersson (8)3–1
- P29:23Teddy Blueger Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Sasson (1), Tyler Myers (4)2–1
- P23:41Brady Tkachuk Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (11), Drake Batherson (11)1–1
- P118:36Jake DeBrusk Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Conor Garland (10), Filip Hronek (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:36Jake DeBrusk Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Conor Garland (10), Filip Hronek (7)VAN 1 – 0 OTT · VAN 45% → 62% +17VAN 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P23:41Brady Tkachuk Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (11), Drake Batherson (11)VAN 1 – 1 OTT · OTT 36% → 55% +18OTT 36% → 55%+18 pts
- P29:23Teddy Blueger Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Sasson (1), Tyler Myers (4)VAN 2 – 1 OTT · VAN 46% → 66% +20VAN 46% → 66%+20 pts
- P213:01Jake DeBrusk Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (6), Elias Pettersson (8)VAN 3 – 1 OTT · VAN 67% → 84% +17VAN 67% → 84%+17 pts
- P38:41Kiefer Sherwood Goal (6) Poke, assists: Jake DeBrusk (8), Elias Pettersson (9)VAN 4 – 1 OTT · VAN 95% → >99% +5VAN 95% → >99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 56%
- ML VAN +120 / OTT -140
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- OTT: Elo 50.8%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- OTT -128
- VAN +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.1 – 3.4 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +5 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +6 Elo | OTT 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.117th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 54.4%3rd of 32 |
| 24th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 88.9%25th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 1st of 326–1 | Road vs home | 5–515th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–10 | 9–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 7–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–0 OTT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.