New York Islanders at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Simon HolmstromGoals2
- Anders LeeAssists2
- Anders LeePoints3
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals2
- Connor McMichaelAssists3
- Dylan StromePoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:20Jakob Chychrun Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (26), John Carlson (13)4–5
- P37:24Tom Wilson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (11), Connor McMichael (10)4–4
- P31:20Dylan Strome Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (7), Connor McMichael (9)4–3
- P218:09Simon Holmstrom Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Dennis Cholowski (3), Bo Horvat (12)4–2
- P216:28Kyle MacLean Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (11), Anders Lee (8)3–2
- P21:15Anders Lee Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Noah Dobson (9), Isaiah George (3)2–2
- P112:10Tom Wilson Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (8), Dylan Strome (25)1–2
- P14:50Nic Dowd Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Miroshnichenko (1), Brandon Duhaime (4)1–1
- P13:36Simon Holmstrom Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Anders Lee (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P216:28Kyle MacLean Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (11), Anders Lee (8)NYI 3 – 2 WSH · NYI 45% → 68% +23NYI 45% → 68%+23 pts
- P218:09Simon Holmstrom Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Dennis Cholowski (3), Bo Horvat (12)NYI 4 – 2 WSH · NYI 69% → 86% +18NYI 69% → 86%+18 pts
- P31:20Dylan Strome Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (7), Connor McMichael (9)NYI 4 – 3 WSH · WSH 12% → 29% +18WSH 12% → 29%+18 pts
- P37:24Tom Wilson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (11), Connor McMichael (10)NYI 4 – 4 WSH · WSH 24% → 54% +30WSH 24% → 54%+30 pts
- OT1:20Jakob Chychrun Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (26), John Carlson (13)NYI 4 – 5 WSH · WSH 52% → 94% +42WSH 52% → 94%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 58%
- ML NYI +130 / WSH -150
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.1 pts
- WSH: Elo 63.1%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- WSH -138
- NYI +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.5 – 3.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +7 | NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +93 Elo | WSH 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 4.11st of 32 |
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.77th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +1.42nd of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.8% | Shot share | 50.7%13th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 90.7%10th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325–8 | Road vs home | 7–510th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–14 | 16–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 1–11 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 12–3 |
| Overs–unders | 13–10 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 2–2 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.