Boston Bruins at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Pavel ZachaGoals2
- David PastrnakAssists3
- Pavel ZachaPoints3
Islanders- Maxim TsyplakovGoals1
- Maxim TsyplakovAssists1
- Maxim TsyplakovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:58Nikita Zadorov Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Elias Lindholm (10), Charlie McAvoy (5)6–3
- P313:23Pavel Zacha Goal (5) Backhand, assists: David Pastrnak (14), Nikita Zadorov (6)5–3
- P310:48Pavel Zacha Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Andrew Peeke (4), David Pastrnak (13)4–3
- P219:52Brock Nelson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Pulock (8), Bo Horvat (10)3–3
- P211:59Morgan Geekie Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (5), David Pastrnak (12)3–2
- P28:52Brock Nelson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Maxim Tsyplakov (10), Isaiah George (2)2–2
- P112:50Maxim Tsyplakov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (7)2–1
- P16:31Brad Marchand Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Brazeau (5), Elias Lindholm (9)2–0
- P10:57Brad Marchand Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:57Brad Marchand Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (8)BOS 1 – 0 NYI · BOS 45% → 59% +15BOS 45% → 59%+15 pts
- P28:52Brock Nelson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Maxim Tsyplakov (10), Isaiah George (2)BOS 2 – 2 NYI · NYI 34% → 54% +20NYI 34% → 54%+20 pts
- P211:59Morgan Geekie Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (5), David Pastrnak (12)BOS 3 – 2 NYI · BOS 46% → 67% +21BOS 46% → 67%+21 pts
- P219:52Brock Nelson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Pulock (8), Bo Horvat (10)BOS 3 – 3 NYI · NYI 29% → 53% +24NYI 29% → 53%+24 pts
- P310:48Pavel Zacha Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Andrew Peeke (4), David Pastrnak (13)BOS 4 – 3 NYI · BOS 48% → 81% +33BOS 48% → 81%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 55%
- ML BOS +115 / NYI -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- NYI: Elo 56.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYI -124
- BOS +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.6 – 2.9 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +1 | BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +48 Elo | NYI 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 60.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.2 | Goals scored | 2.526th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.9 | Margin | −0.420th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 50.7%12th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 91.0%10th of 32 |
| 17th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 32 |
| 17th of 324–6 | Road vs home | 3–630th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–18 | 9–13 |
| Last 10 | 0–10 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–13 | 1–10 |
| Underdog | 2–5 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–14 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–1 NYI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.