Vancouver Canucks at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Conor GarlandGoals1
- Conor GarlandAssists1
- Conor GarlandPoints2
BruinsScoring summary
- P319:47Conor Garland Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Pius Suter (4)2–0
- P25:53Jake DeBrusk Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Conor Garland (11), Quinn Hughes (16)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:53Jake DeBrusk Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Conor Garland (11), Quinn Hughes (16)VAN 1 – 0 BOS · VAN 48% → 67% +19VAN 48% → 67%+19 pts
- P319:47Conor Garland Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Pius Suter (4)VAN 2 – 0 BOS · VAN >99% → 100% +0VAN >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML VAN +100 / BOS -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- VAN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.7 – 2.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +1 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +23 Elo | BOS 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.332nd of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.929th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 48.8%23rd of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 89.5%21st of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–1 | Road vs home | 6–613th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–10 | 5–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 3–12 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–9 | 9–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 1–1 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.