Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Dylan StromeGoals1
- Dylan StromeAssists1
- Tom WilsonPoints2
Lightning- Zemgus GirgensonsAssists1
- Nikita KucherovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:34Tom Wilson Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Jakob Chychrun (6), Dylan Strome (24)5–4
- P310:30John Carlson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–4
- P37:25Brayden Point Goal (15) , assists: none3–4
- P31:37Dylan Strome Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Raddysh (6), Aliaksei Protas (12)3–3
- P219:16Michael Eyssimont Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Zemgus Girgensons (2)2–3
- P212:29Aliaksei Protas Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (10)2–2
- P210:31Andrew Mangiapane Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (5), Hendrix Lapierre (5)1–2
- P112:27Brayden Point Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (21), Victor Hedman (15)0–2
- P13:58Brayden Point Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Jake Guentzel (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P219:16Michael Eyssimont Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Zemgus Girgensons (2)WSH 2 – 3 TB · TB 55% → 77% +22TB 55% → 77%+22 pts
- P31:37Dylan Strome Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Raddysh (6), Aliaksei Protas (12)WSH 3 – 3 TB · WSH 22% → 45% +23WSH 22% → 45%+23 pts
- P37:25Brayden Point Goal (15) , assists: noneWSH 3 – 4 TB · TB 54% → 82% +28TB 54% → 82%+28 pts
- P310:30John Carlson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWSH 4 – 4 TB · WSH 16% → 46% +31WSH 16% → 46%+31 pts
- P316:34Tom Wilson Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Jakob Chychrun (6), Dylan Strome (24)WSH 5 – 4 TB · WSH 48% → 93% +45WSH 48% → 93%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 59%
- ML WSH +135 / TB -155
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- TB: Elo 57.7%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- TB -143
- WSH +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 3.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +7 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +54 Elo | TB 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 62.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.0 | Goals scored | 3.85th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.016th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.4 | Margin | +0.88th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 49.7%16th of 32 |
| 12th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 90.2%17th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–2 | Road vs home | 7–37th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–6 | 8–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 11–3 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–9 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–2 TB in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.