Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Logan O'ConnorGoals1
- Logan O'ConnorAssists1
- Logan O'ConnorPoints2
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals2
- Jason ZuckerAssists1
- Tage ThompsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:38Artturi Lehkonen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Calvin de Haan (3), Nathan MacKinnon (30)5–4
- P37:39Nathan MacKinnon Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Mikko Rantanen (20), Devon Toews (7)4–4
- P34:30Logan O'Connor Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (13)3–4
- P31:19Joel Kiviranta Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Calvin de Haan (2), Logan O'Connor (3)2–4
- P22:24Nathan MacKinnon Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–4
- P111:49Beck Malenstyn Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel (1)0–4
- P16:50JJ Peterka Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (4), Dylan Cozens (6)0–3
- P16:39Tage Thompson Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Jason Zucker (10), Bowen Byram (11)0–2
- P13:22Tage Thompson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Clifton (5), Alex Tuch (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:22Tage Thompson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Clifton (5), Alex Tuch (15)COL 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 40% → 55% +15BUF 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P16:39Tage Thompson Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Jason Zucker (10), Bowen Byram (11)COL 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 56% → 70% +14BUF 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P34:30Logan O'Connor Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (13)COL 3 – 4 BUF · COL 10% → 28% +18COL 10% → 28%+18 pts
- P37:39Nathan MacKinnon Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Mikko Rantanen (20), Devon Toews (7)COL 4 – 4 BUF · COL 24% → 55% +30COL 24% → 55%+30 pts
- P315:38Artturi Lehkonen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Calvin de Haan (3), Nathan MacKinnon (30)COL 5 – 4 BUF · COL 53% → 92% +40COL 53% → 92%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 60%
- ML COL -165 / BUF +140
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.7 pts
- COL: Elo 46.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- COL -149
- BUF +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 2.5 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +9 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +26 Elo | BUF 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.5 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.5% | Shot share | 50.1%15th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.2% | Save percentage | 90.0%15th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–5 | Road vs home | 6–613th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–18 | 12–12 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–13 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 15–10 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 1–1 BUF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.