Buffalo Sabres at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Alex TuchGoals1
- Owen PowerAssists2
- Alex TuchPoints2
Ducks- Drew HellesonGoals1
- Ross JohnstonAssists1
- Isac LundestromPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:00Jiri Kulich Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (12), Alex Tuch (14)3–2
- P219:27Jason Zucker Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (11)2–2
- P218:37Alex Tuch Goal (6) , assists: none1–2
- P214:07Isac Lundestrom Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Ross Johnston (3), Olen Zellweger (5)0–2
- P14:02Drew Helleson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (5), Leo Carlsson (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:02Drew Helleson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (5), Leo Carlsson (5)BUF 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 39% → 54% +15ANA 39% → 54%+15 pts
- P214:07Isac Lundestrom Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Ross Johnston (3), Olen Zellweger (5)BUF 0 – 2 ANA · ANA 64% → 82% +18ANA 64% → 82%+18 pts
- P218:37Alex Tuch Goal (6) , assists: noneBUF 1 – 2 ANA · BUF 15% → 33% +18BUF 15% → 33%+18 pts
- P219:27Jason Zucker Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (11)BUF 2 – 2 ANA · BUF 32% → 57% +24BUF 32% → 57%+24 pts
- OT4:00Jiri Kulich Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (12), Alex Tuch (14)BUF 3 – 2 ANA · BUF 51% → >99% +48BUF 51% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 61%
- ML BUF -175 / ANA +150
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- BUF: Elo 56.6%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- BUF -159
- ANA +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.6 – 2.9 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −10 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +46 Elo | BUF 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.625th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.422nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.4% | Shot share | 44.6%31st of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 91.5%8th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 13th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 4–521st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–10 | 12–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–8 | 5–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 0–2 ANA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.