Buffalo Sabres at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors LA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Jason ZuckerGoals1
- Alex TuchAssists1
- Jason ZuckerPoints1
KingsScoring summary
- P30:38Jason Zucker Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (12), Alex Tuch (13)1–0
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P30:38Jason Zucker Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (12), Alex Tuch (13)BUF 1 – 0 LA · BUF 43% → 68% +25BUF 43% → 68%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- LA 61%
- ML BUF +150 / LA -175
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- LA: Elo 58.5%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- LA -159
- BUF +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.4 – 3.1 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +15 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.38 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +59 Elo | LA 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 59.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 14th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.312th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.5% | Shot share | 54.0%6th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.5%18th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 21st of 322–4 | Road vs home | 5–27th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–10 | 10–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–7 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 2–1 LA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.