Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres
Islanders- Simon HolmstromGoals2
- Anders LeeAssists1
- Simon HolmstromPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:52Simon Holmstrom Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–3
- P29:28Simon Holmstrom Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (9)0–2
- P27:23Anders Lee Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Kyle Palmieri (10), Dennis Cholowski (4)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:23Anders Lee Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Kyle Palmieri (10), Dennis Cholowski (4)BUF 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 52% → 71% +19NYI 52% → 71%+19 pts
- P29:28Simon Holmstrom Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (9)BUF 0 – 2 NYI · NYI 72% → 86% +14NYI 72% → 86%+14 pts
- P319:52Simon Holmstrom Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBUF 0 – 3 NYI · NYI 100% → 100% +0NYI 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 53%
- ML BUF +105 / NYI -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- NYI: Elo 52.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYI -114
- BUF +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.7 – 2.8 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | NYI and BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −16 | −2 | BUF: James Reimer: team allows 0.40 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +17 Elo | NYI 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 57.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.626th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.525th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 50.7%13th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.2%12th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–832nd of 32 |
| 9th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 3–731st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–11 | 10–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 1–11 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–11 | 14–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 2–2 NYI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.