Buffalo Sabres at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Alex TuchGoals1
- Bowen ByramAssists2
- Bowen ByramPoints2
Sharks- Tyler ToffoliAssists1
- Tyler ToffoliPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:59Rasmus Dahlin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P35:27Alex Tuch Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2
- P32:07Dylan Cozens Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (13), Bowen Byram (10)2–2
- P24:07Luke Kunin Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Tyler Toffoli (7), Alexander Wennberg (7)1–2
- P111:03Peyton Krebs Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (9)1–1
- P19:59Fabian Zetterlund Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Walman (11), William Eklund (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:59Fabian Zetterlund Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Walman (11), William Eklund (13)BUF 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 45% → 61% +16SJ 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P111:03Peyton Krebs Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (9)BUF 1 – 1 SJ · BUF 39% → 55% +16BUF 39% → 55%+16 pts
- P24:07Luke Kunin Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Tyler Toffoli (7), Alexander Wennberg (7)BUF 1 – 2 SJ · SJ 46% → 64% +18SJ 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P32:07Dylan Cozens Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (13), Bowen Byram (10)BUF 2 – 2 SJ · BUF 28% → 53% +25BUF 28% → 53%+25 pts
- P35:27Alex Tuch Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBUF 3 – 2 SJ · BUF 53% → 79% +26BUF 53% → 79%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 55%
- ML BUF -135 / SJ +115
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- BUF: Elo 54.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BUF -124
- SJ +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.4 – 3.1 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1394 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −18 | −5 | BUF: James Reimer: team allows 0.45 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +31 Elo | BUF 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.527th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −1.131st of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.8% | Shot share | 45.2%29th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.5%16th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 12th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 4–523rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–11 | 14–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | — |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 11–9 | 9–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 2–0 SJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.