Vancouver Canucks at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Conor GarlandGoals2
- Brock BoeserAssists2
- Conor GarlandPoints3
Sabres- Alex TuchGoals1
- Zach BensonAssists2
- Zach BensonPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:59Conor Garland Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Quinn Hughes (20), Elias Pettersson (11)4–3
- P314:57Alex Tuch Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Cozens (5), Zach Benson (3)3–3
- P313:18Dylan Cozens Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Clifton (4)3–2
- P39:00Pius Suter Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (13)3–1
- P35:15Conor Garland Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Brock Boeser (7), Quinn Hughes (19)2–1
- P218:12Jake DeBrusk Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Pius Suter (5), Brock Boeser (6)1–1
- P117:33Bowen Byram Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Zach Benson (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:33Bowen Byram Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Zach Benson (2)VAN 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 50% → 67% +17BUF 50% → 67%+17 pts
- P218:12Jake DeBrusk Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Pius Suter (5), Brock Boeser (6)VAN 1 – 1 BUF · VAN 27% → 50% +23VAN 27% → 50%+23 pts
- P35:15Conor Garland Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Brock Boeser (7), Quinn Hughes (19)VAN 2 – 1 BUF · VAN 50% → 77% +27VAN 50% → 77%+27 pts
- P314:57Alex Tuch Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Cozens (5), Zach Benson (3)VAN 3 – 3 BUF · BUF 10% → 50% +40BUF 10% → 50%+40 pts
- OT3:59Conor Garland Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Quinn Hughes (20), Elias Pettersson (11)VAN 4 – 3 BUF · VAN 50% → >99% +50VAN 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 50%
- ML VAN -110 / BUF -110
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- BUF: Elo 53.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- BUF -100
- VAN -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.8 – 2.8 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +10 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +23 Elo | BUF 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 51.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 14th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.112th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3249.3% | Shot share | 49.2%23rd of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 90.3%15th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Road vs home | 6–512th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–11 | 11–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–10 | 11–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–0 BUF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.