Vancouver Canucks at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Quinn HughesGoals1
- Quinn HughesAssists2
- Quinn HughesPoints3
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals2
- Bryan RustAssists1
- Bryan RustPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:14Elias Pettersson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (12), Quinn Hughes (18)4–5
- P30:40Quinn Hughes Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (10)3–5
- P213:40Pius Suter Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (17), Filip Hronek (8)2–5
- P23:40Bryan Rust Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (15), Erik Karlsson (13)1–5
- P117:41Bryan Rust Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (14), Erik Karlsson (12)1–4
- P115:14Kevin Hayes Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (16), Erik Karlsson (11)1–3
- P112:53Rickard Rakell Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (4), Marcus Pettersson (9)1–2
- P18:52Aatu Raty Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Max Sasson (2)1–1
- P13:59Blake Lizotte Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Ryan Shea (1), Drew O'Connor (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:59Blake Lizotte Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Ryan Shea (1), Drew O'Connor (4)VAN 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 49% → 64% +15PIT 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P18:52Aatu Raty Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Max Sasson (2)VAN 1 – 1 PIT · VAN 36% → 51% +15VAN 36% → 51%+15 pts
- P112:53Rickard Rakell Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (4), Marcus Pettersson (9)VAN 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 49% → 65% +16PIT 49% → 65%+16 pts
- P115:14Kevin Hayes Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (16), Erik Karlsson (11)VAN 1 – 3 PIT · PIT 66% → 79% +14PIT 66% → 79%+14 pts
- P117:41Bryan Rust Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (14), Erik Karlsson (12)VAN 1 – 4 PIT · PIT 80% → 90% +10PIT 80% → 90%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 51%
- ML VAN -115 / PIT -105
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- VAN: Elo 47.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- VAN -104
- PIT +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.3 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VAN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −12 | −3 | VAN: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +16 Elo | PIT 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.625th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 4.032nd of 32 |
| 13th of 320.0 | Margin | −1.532nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3249.0% | Shot share | 48.1%24th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 88.5%29th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–832nd of 32 |
| 1st of 328–1 | Road vs home | 4–830th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–10 | 8–15 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders | 10–10 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–1 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.