Utah Hockey Club at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Dylan GuentherGoals2
- Clayton KellerAssists3
- Dylan GuentherPoints3
PenguinsScoring summary
- P315:59Dylan Guenther Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (11), Clayton Keller (13)6–1
- P37:25Alexander Kerfoot Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Maveric Lamoureux (2), Michael Carcone (2)5–1
- P36:38Dylan Guenther Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (15), Clayton Keller (12)4–1
- P210:37Nick Bjugstad Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Michael Kesselring (7), Michael Carcone (1)3–1
- P23:11Sidney Crosby Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (10)2–1
- P113:07Mikhail Sergachev Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (11), Nick Schmaltz (14)2–0
- P18:54Jack McBain Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (8), Logan Cooley (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:54Jack McBain Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (8), Logan Cooley (10)UTAH 1 – 0 PIT · UTAH 54% → 69% +15UTAH 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P113:07Mikhail Sergachev Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (11), Nick Schmaltz (14)UTAH 2 – 0 PIT · UTAH 69% → 82% +13UTAH 69% → 82%+13 pts
- P23:11Sidney Crosby Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (10)UTAH 2 – 1 PIT · PIT 15% → 29% +14PIT 15% → 29%+14 pts
- P210:37Nick Bjugstad Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Michael Kesselring (7), Michael Carcone (1)UTAH 3 – 1 PIT · UTAH 72% → 87% +14UTAH 72% → 87%+14 pts
- P36:38Dylan Guenther Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (15), Clayton Keller (12)UTAH 4 – 1 PIT · UTAH 94% → >99% +5UTAH 94% → >99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 54%
- ML UTAH -130 / PIT +110
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- UTAH: Elo 51.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 3.4 – 3.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +9 | 0 | UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +13 Elo | UTAH 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 51.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.623rd of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 4.032nd of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −1.332nd of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.0% | Shot share | 48.0%25th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 88.8%27th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Road vs home | 4–729th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–9 | 8–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders | 8–11 | 11–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.