Minnesota Wild at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors BUF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints1
SabresScoring summary
- P16:55Kirill Kaprizov Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (5), Matt Boldy (12)1–0
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:55Kirill Kaprizov Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (5), Matt Boldy (12)MIN 1 – 0 BUF · MIN 57% → 71% +14MIN 57% → 71%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 57%
- ML MIN -145 / BUF +125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 46.1%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -133
- BUF +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.0 – 2.5 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +10 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +27 Elo | BUF 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 51.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.8 | Margin | +0.211th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 48.8%23rd of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.8% | Save percentage | 89.9%18th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 5th of 329–4 | Road vs home | 6–410th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–8 | 10–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–7 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–10 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 0–2 BUF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.