Winnipeg Jets at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Alex IafalloGoals2
- Neal PionkAssists2
- Alex IafalloPoints2
Wild- Jake MiddletonGoals1
- Marcus JohanssonAssists1
- Jake MiddletonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:57Adam Lowry Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Kyle Connor (14), Mark Scheifele (14)4–1
- P313:20Alex Iafallo Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Neal Pionk (16), Cole Perfetti (11)3–1
- P212:05Nino Niederreiter Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Neal Pionk (15), Vladislav Namestnikov (8)2–1
- P110:03Alex Iafallo Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Rasmus Kupari (1)1–1
- P18:37Jake Middleton Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (5), Brock Faber (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:37Jake Middleton Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (5), Brock Faber (9)WPG 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 48% → 63% +15MIN 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P110:03Alex Iafallo Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Rasmus Kupari (1)WPG 1 – 1 MIN · WPG 36% → 52% +16WPG 36% → 52%+16 pts
- P212:05Nino Niederreiter Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Neal Pionk (15), Vladislav Namestnikov (8)WPG 2 – 1 MIN · WPG 51% → 72% +20WPG 51% → 72%+20 pts
- P313:20Alex Iafallo Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Neal Pionk (16), Cole Perfetti (11)WPG 3 – 1 MIN · WPG 87% → 99% +12WPG 87% → 99%+12 pts
- P318:57Adam Lowry Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Kyle Connor (14), Mark Scheifele (14)WPG 4 – 1 MIN · WPG >99% → 100% +0WPG >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 52%
- ML WPG -120 / MIN +100
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- WPG: Elo 51.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- WPG -109
- MIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.8 – 2.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +8 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +11 Elo | WPG 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 50.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.0 | Goals scored | 3.59th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 2.53rd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.6 | Margin | +1.05th of 32 |
| 12th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 49.5%18th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3292.1% | Save percentage | 91.9%4th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 3rd of 328–3 | Road vs home | 4–313th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–9 | 13–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–5 | 8–7 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 5–0 |
| Overs–unders | 10–11 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 5–0 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.