Edmonton Oilers at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsGoals1
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsAssists1
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPoints2
Avalanche- Samuel GirardAssists1
- Samuel GirardPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:28Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (5), Evan Bouchard (12)4–1
- P33:56Brett Kulak Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Ty Emberson (2), Jeff Skinner (4)3–1
- P213:48Vasily Podkolzin Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Troy Stecher (3), Connor Brown (5)2–1
- P111:48Kasperi Kapanen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (19), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (8)1–1
- P17:02Nikolai Kovalenko Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (5), Samuel Girard (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:02Nikolai Kovalenko Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (5), Samuel Girard (12)EDM 0 – 1 COL · COL 54% → 69% +15COL 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P111:48Kasperi Kapanen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (19), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (8)EDM 1 – 1 COL · EDM 31% → 46% +15EDM 31% → 46%+15 pts
- P213:48Vasily Podkolzin Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Troy Stecher (3), Connor Brown (5)EDM 2 – 1 COL · EDM 47% → 68% +21EDM 47% → 68%+21 pts
- P33:56Brett Kulak Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Ty Emberson (2), Jeff Skinner (4)EDM 3 – 1 COL · EDM 74% → 91% +17EDM 74% → 91%+17 pts
- P318:28Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (5), Evan Bouchard (12)EDM 4 – 1 COL · EDM >99% → >99% +0EDM >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- COL 54%
- ML EDM +110 / COL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- COL: Elo 52.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- COL -119
- EDM +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.1 – 3.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | COL and EDM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −7 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +17 Elo | COL 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.730th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.422nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.0% | Shot share | 53.8%4th of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 87.1%32nd of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 6th of 327–4 | Road vs home | 7–613th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–16 | 7–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–15 | 4–12 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–13 | 15–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 1–2 COL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.