Edmonton Oilers at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- Evan BouchardAssists2
- Leon DraisaitlPoints2
Utah HC- Lawson CrouseGoals1
- Robert BortuzzoAssists1
- Alexander KerfootPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:18Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: none4–3
- P33:42Lawson Crouse Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Bjugstad (3), Olli Maatta (1)3–3
- P216:22Connor McDavid Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (11), Corey Perry (3)3–2
- P214:01Leon Draisaitl Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (18), Evan Bouchard (10)2–2
- P29:44Vasily Podkolzin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (15), Troy Stecher (2)1–2
- P117:15Logan Cooley Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Juuso Valimaki (1), Robert Bortuzzo (1)0–2
- P16:17Alexander Kerfoot Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:44Vasily Podkolzin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (15), Troy Stecher (2)EDM 1 – 2 UTAH · EDM 19% → 36% +17EDM 19% → 36%+17 pts
- P214:01Leon Draisaitl Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (18), Evan Bouchard (10)EDM 2 – 2 UTAH · EDM 34% → 55% +22EDM 34% → 55%+22 pts
- P216:22Connor McDavid Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (11), Corey Perry (3)EDM 3 – 2 UTAH · EDM 55% → 76% +21EDM 55% → 76%+21 pts
- P33:42Lawson Crouse Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Bjugstad (3), Olli Maatta (1)EDM 3 – 3 UTAH · UTAH 21% → 46% +25UTAH 21% → 46%+25 pts
- OT1:18Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: noneEDM 4 – 3 UTAH · EDM 52% → 94% +42EDM 52% → 94%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 58%
- ML EDM -150 / UTAH +130
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- EDM: Elo 51.2%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- EDM -138
- UTAH +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.5 – 3.0 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +13 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +8 Elo | EDM 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.723rd of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.422nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.2% | Shot share | 47.8%25th of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 89.5%22nd of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Road vs home | 4–522nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–15 | 12–10 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–14 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–13 | 9–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.