Utah Hockey Club at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Logan CooleyGoals1
- Logan CooleyAssists1
- Logan CooleyPoints2
Maple Leafs- John TavaresAssists1
- John TavaresPoints1
Scoring summary
- P31:51Jack McBain Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Logan Cooley (12), Michael Kesselring (8)2–3
- P210:50William Nylander Goal (14) Backhand, assists: none1–3
- P29:34Mitch Marner Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Fraser Minten (1), William Nylander (10)1–2
- P25:15Mitch Marner Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (11), Chris Tanev (4)1–1
- P117:48Logan Cooley Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Guenther (9), Mikhail Sergachev (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:48Logan Cooley Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Guenther (9), Mikhail Sergachev (9)UTAH 1 – 0 TOR · UTAH 38% → 56% +17UTAH 38% → 56%+17 pts
- P25:15Mitch Marner Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (11), Chris Tanev (4)UTAH 1 – 1 TOR · TOR 42% → 60% +19TOR 42% → 60%+19 pts
- P29:34Mitch Marner Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Fraser Minten (1), William Nylander (10)UTAH 1 – 2 TOR · TOR 60% → 78% +18TOR 60% → 78%+18 pts
- P210:50William Nylander Goal (14) Backhand, assists: noneUTAH 1 – 3 TOR · TOR 78% → 90% +12TOR 78% → 90%+12 pts
- P31:51Jack McBain Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Logan Cooley (12), Michael Kesselring (8)UTAH 2 – 3 TOR · UTAH 6% → 20% +13UTAH 6% → 20%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 64%
- ML UTAH +165 / TOR -195
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 62.1%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- TOR -175
- UTAH +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 2.4 – 3.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +14 | −7 | UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +86 Elo | TOR 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 62.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.53rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.59th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.3% | Shot share | 51.1%12th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 91.9%3rd of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–7 | Road vs home | 9–35th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–9 | 13–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 8–7 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 5–0 |
| Overs–unders | 9–11 | 8–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.