Utah Hockey Club at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Dylan GuentherGoals1
- Nick SchmaltzAssists2
- Dylan GuentherPoints2
Canadiens- Alex NewhookGoals1
- David SavardAssists1
- Alex NewhookPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:33Mikhail Sergachev Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (17), Barrett Hayton (4)3–2
- P34:17Jack McBain Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (13), Dylan Guenther (10)2–2
- P30:46Alex Newhook Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Christian Dvorak (6), Arber Xhekaj (2)1–2
- P28:05Jayden Struble Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (5), David Savard (5)1–1
- P26:23Dylan Guenther Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (14), Nick Schmaltz (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:23Dylan Guenther Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (14), Nick Schmaltz (16)UTAH 1 – 0 MTL · UTAH 54% → 72% +18UTAH 54% → 72%+18 pts
- P28:05Jayden Struble Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (5), David Savard (5)UTAH 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 28% → 46% +19MTL 28% → 46%+19 pts
- P30:46Alex Newhook Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Christian Dvorak (6), Arber Xhekaj (2)UTAH 1 – 2 MTL · MTL 47% → 72% +25MTL 47% → 72%+25 pts
- P34:17Jack McBain Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (13), Dylan Guenther (10)UTAH 2 – 2 MTL · UTAH 26% → 53% +27UTAH 26% → 53%+27 pts
- OT4:33Mikhail Sergachev Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (17), Barrett Hayton (4)UTAH 3 – 2 MTL · UTAH 50% → >99% +50UTAH 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 55%
- ML UTAH -135 / MTL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- UTAH: Elo 52.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -124
- MTL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 3.4 – 3.1 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +12 | +1 | UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.30 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +18 Elo | UTAH 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.821st of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.931st of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.5 | Margin | −1.131st of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.0% | Shot share | 44.5%31st of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 88.1%30th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 24th of 324–8 | Road vs home | 5–619th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–9 | 9–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders | 9–12 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.